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One of humanity's biggest yet widely unaccepted vanity driven mental errors is the inability to view oneself or generation as a part in evolution. Often, we think the experience we are having is existential only to us, but the truth is, we’re only a frame in an expanded cyclical slideshow, constantly repeating, with similar, better visible, yet more complex frames, all going through the same set of experiences. I have found that locating oneself’s frame in this series of slideshows (i.e., identifying what was, what is, and potentially what’s to follow, and threading the pattern of cyclicality) is a strong enabler of progressive socio-economic and political conversations.
Today at a glance:
Lessons I learnt reading Ray Dalio’s “The Changing World Order” :The big cycle of internal (i.e., countries’ systems of governing internally) order and disorder.
The overall cycle in the South African context.
Locating where our generation is within our cycle and why it matters.
Ray Dalio posits that; “internal orders typically (though not always) change through a relatively standard sequence of stages, like the progression of a disease. By looking at the symptoms we can tell which stages countries are in”
In his research Dalio identifies that the cyclical stages of internal order to internal disorder and back are as follows:
“Stage 1 , When the new order begins and the new leadership consolidates power, which leads to….
Stage 2, when the resource-allocation systems and government bureaucracies are built and refined, which leads to…
Stage 3, when there is peace and prosperity, which leads to….
Stage 4, when there are great excesses in spending and debts, widening of wealth and political gaps, which leads to…
Stage 5, when there are very bad financial conditions and intense conflicts, which leads to…
Stage 6, when there are civil wars/revolutions, which leads to…
Stage 1, which leads to stage 2,etc.,with the cycle happening over again.”
Whilst Dalio argues that it takes roughly 100 years “give and take a lot” for the cycle to run from stage 1 to the end of 6. I am identifying that the newly formed post-apartheid South Africa, has fast tracked into high stages and potentially at the end of the cycle in less than a third of Dalio’s 100.
Before exploring that thought further though, I want to plot this cycle in the context of South African events:
Stage 1 - South Africa’s new order began in 1994, when the post apartheid rein of an equal, democratically elected national assembly began . A new order consolidated power and a new order began under the African National Congress
Stage 2 - New resource allocation systems were put in place which predominantly had the aim of putting right the injustices of the past, like BEE in its various forms, which aimed to give power to the black minority through better allocation of resources and government bureaucracies built around that idea
Stage 3 - I found that this stage is best identifiable if quantified, hence I have used different metrics best accurate to a peaceful and prospering society, both from a socio-economic and political perspective. See the graph below with the following data points (USD/ZAR exchange rate, fiscal budget (government revenue less expenses), debt to gdp ratio, unemployed persons, consumer confidence ratio). This is the period around 2005 to 2008.
Stage 4 - Same graph. Shortly after stage 3 points, we start seeing an increase or decrease in the data points, which shows a decaying social, political and financial construct. The USD/ZAR exchange rate increases, depreciating the Rand whilst the fiscal budget deteriorates so does the consumer confidence index, unemployed persons increase, and so does the debt to gdp ratio. This is the period from late 2008 to 2015
Stage 5 - I find that the progression from stage 4 to 5 can be very blurry and not easily identifiable, but adding on to the data and looking also at non-numerical aspects, it becomes easier to draw the line.
For instance, looking at the student led fees must fall protest ,the recent civil unrest (looting) in KZN, both showing a strong conflict between the people and the state, with minor conflicts amongst different groups of different ideologies and within groups of same ideologies also increasing.
I would identify 2015 as the beginning of the period I believe we are in (stage 5, intense conflict and bad financial condition, debilitating state owned enterprises and government that are both heading towards bankruptcy with some already at bankruptcy.
More to these indicators, Dalio argues that some indicators that show a country or state is in the 5th stage include: Populism and extremism, class warfares, and the loss of truth in the public domain because of distortions in the media and propaganda
Stage 6 - The stage ahead of us
As it might already appear to you, the symptoms are mildly strong that South Africa under the current national assembly/governance structure is in its 5th stage. The signs are glaring at us, from both the political and socio-economic end, and if things do not change, we are and will slowly but surely trigger the events that bake up a civil war or a revolution.
It is likely that a civil war/ revolution is upon us. I find it clearer to identify what a revolution might look like, rather than a civil war. Considering that the biggest leaver the people have with regards to the internal order is through vote, and if it is to be that people consider the inefficiencies of the culmination of excess spending ,growing income, social and political gaps, conflict and bad financial conditions, and the rest of the bitter stage 5 symptoms ,the stage will be setup for a revolution in our next general election in 2024 with potentially new provincial legislature and National assembly, a new order coming in place that takes us back to power consolidation and building all over again.
In conclusion, I don’t speculate that we will see a revolution in 2024, but I do believe we are building up to one, what is most important to consider is that the further down the line it is ‘postponed’ the more aggressive it will be, and the earlier we see it the better.
Talk to you soon.
KUSA NKOSI